Saturday, August 25, 2007

Managing Your Real Assets

You have probably already attended various seminars that teach you about strategies on how to manage your financial assets wisely. But have you ever wondered what your real asset really is? Sometimes, you may become so caught up in earning more profits and making more money that you might have lost sight of the things that really matter in your life. These things include your health, your family, your contentment, and your happiness.

Sadly, you will notice that a lot of seemingly successful businesspeople do not enjoy the real assets in life. They may drive the best cars that money can buy or live in posh houses, but what good are all these assets if they are suffering from poor health. They might be experiencing severe stomach or chest pain for which all money in the world is no compensation.

So if you are a businessperson who is constantly on the move tying to find better business opportunities and better investment mediums, you might want to determine if you are compromising your health in order to achieve these goals. One way to do this is to realize several things. The first is the fact that only you can manage your well-being because you are in control of your actions and your feelings. The second is that you need to let go of past failures that continue to haunt you because it will only make you suffer needlessly. Finally, you should remember is that it is possible for you to lose interest in life if you place too much emphasis on items that really don’t matter.

Through it all, it is most important to know who you really are because this will enable you to examine yourself properly so that you will know what can truly make you satisfied and happy. All these facts are pointed out not to tell you that money doesn’t matter because it does. But the real question is to what extent are you willing to sacrifice to have more money?

Here are a couple of questions to ask yourself. The first is whether you would allow stress from work to hinder you from having joy in your life because it is possible to become so caught up with the problems involving work that you might not notice that you are continually making your body suffer from stress and neglect. The next question is whether you will still continue to give time to activities that will not provide a significant improvement on your quality of life. You usually hear about time management skills and its importance but are you really allocating your time wisely to fruitful pursuits?

The answers to these questions can help you to determine if you are really living a life that is worth living.

John Kaighn

Jersey Benefits Advisors

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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Summer Close Out Sale

As we prepare for the last two weeks of August and the Labor Day Holiday, traditionally a time of vacation, low volume and low volatility on Wall Street, there are many folks who hope the Fed move on Thursday was the right prescription for the credit markets. By dusting off a little used weapon in the monetary policy arsenal, Mr Bernanke has attempted to encourage banks to loan to the credit worthy, without bailing out those who have been irresponsible in the use of leverage. By lowering the discount rate by half a percentage point to 5.75%, the Fed lowered the rate it charges banks when they borrow from the Federal Reserve. While borrowing from the Fed is viewed by banks as the creditor of last resort, this should help companies such as Countrywide, which has a banking operation and is able to borrow from the Fed. It also encourages banks to continue to make credit available to other businesses, who are not necessarily affected by the subprime mortgage mess, but have had a difficult time lately selling commercial paper and other short term financing facilities because banks have been reluctant to make any loans, due to the fallout from the mortgage mess.

The markets reacted positively to the Fed move on Friday, and after reading numerous articles over the weekend, my conclusion is that this was a very good move by the Fed. While it may not stop a further slide in the markets in the short term, it doesn't reinflate the mortgage bubble, because the Federal Funds rate, the rate banks charge each other, hasn't changed. While there is a minority calling for a lowering of the Federal Funds rate, and you can be sure these are the people who are being toasted by their use of leverage, most responsible voices seem to be indicating the system can handle the losses from the subprime mortgage sector and lowering the Federal Funds rate could lead to further speculative excess.

The Dow crossed the 10% correction threshold on Thursday, but managed to close in somewhat better shape and rallied on Friday. While the S&P 500 was down as much as 12% from its July peak intraday on Thursday, it also managed to recover late in the day and rose back to 1,445 by the close on Friday. Where the markets go in the next two weeks is really only an issue, if you have a need for short term cash. If you are invested for the long haul, you ride out the volatility and continue to add to your holdings, for when the markets are down, shrewd investors view it as a sale!

John Kaighn

Jersey Benefits Advisors

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Monday, August 13, 2007

Welcome to the "Credit Crunch"

In just a few short but grueling weeks, we have gone from an environment where liquidity was king to a "credit crunch", the antithesis of liquidity. Volatility has replaced predictability in the markets and the European Central Bank, their counterparts in other parts of the world, as well as the Fed pumped billions of dollars into money market funds last week to calm nervous markets and provide short term funds. Futures markets are even betting on the Fed to lower interest rates in the near future, to increase liquidity and bail out some of the bad bets on derivative investments, which have been magnified by the use of over the top leverage. Let' hope the Fed doesn't cave.

With interest rates at 5.25%, oil and gasoline prices in decline and the rest of the economy still growing, the interests of the overall economy would be best served by allowing for the liquidation of some of these bad investments and the subsequest pain being felt by the very individuals and institutions who initiated this newest bubble. There is credit available for other sectors of the economy, besides the private equity and subprime mortgage crowds, and while confidence may be shaken somewhat, by an end to easy credit, it is important for those who make bad bets with leverage and create asset bubbles to learn the Fed will not bail them out. Lowering interest rates at this juncture would only reinforce the over leveraged hedge funds and private equity managers to continue their risky ventures and to overpay for assets.

Look for continued volatility in the markets this week as investors try to ascertain whether the subprime debacle has been contained. It is entirely possible the Dow could slip below 13,000 as the market searches for a bottom. Thankfuly, this is also vacation time on Wall Street, so there should be a slowdown in volume after this week as we head into the last two weeks of August and the Labor Day Holiday. This is traditionally the time of the year with the slimmest volume in the markets and many hope that by September, the extent of this latest crisis will be better understood. My hope is that the Fed stays firm with interest rates and uses monetary policy prudently over the next few weeks.

John Kaighn

Jersey Benefits Advisors

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Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Keeping an Eye on Long Term Trends

As anticipated on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone, didn't change their outlook on inflation being their primary concern and predicted moderate economic growth going forward. After the gains of Monday and Tuesday this week the Dow is halfway to 14,000 again. A little volatility now and then never hurts, and it keeps the speculators at bay.

Corporate earnings have been mixed, but overall positive, which continues to draw money into stocks. It is hard to sit in cash when the markets provide so much drama and a usually higher return to boot. For the long term investor, the daily business news reports take on an air of entertainment, as they put so much emphasis information with little or no long term significance. Sifting through this fodder for useful long term trends is my major goal.

One of those long term trends, which I have been warning about since early 2006 is housing and subsequently the credit markets. As the credit markets tighten, due to the mess created by lax lending standards during the specuative housing boom, there is a great deal of pain being felt. Containing the damage is critical, which is why the Fed is holding rates steady and not lowering them. Lower rates now would only create more liquidity, which in turn would provide reinforcement for exactly the kind of behaviors the Fed is trying to curb.

John Kaighn

Jersey Benefits Advisors

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Saturday, August 4, 2007

Two Steps Back

After a lackluster four days of up and down trading, the subprime woes and a weak jobs report hammered the market on Friday. With hedge funds, builders and mortgage companies melting down, the concern is the housing mess will spill over into other areas of the economy. Hence, the uptick of the unemployment rate to 4.6% gave traders one more reason to unwind their positions.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve meets and investors will be looking for any references to the problems in the credit markets or a change in the Fed's position on inflation. There is no indication there will be any change in the Fed's target interest rate of 5.25%, which has held steady for over a year now. Lehman Brothers anticipates the Fed's outlook on growth and inflation will remain unchanged and only a minor acknowledgement of market developments will be mentioned.

The biggest concern I have is how over leveraged the financial system is. Treasury Secretary Paulson has stated the subprime credit fiasco is contained, but others aren't so sure. Alan Abelson, of Barrons, cites concerns by Jeremy Grantham, who runs GMO, an insitutional money manager. Grantham feels we are "watching a very slow train wreck", and that in five years, because of over leverage, at least one major bank will have failed, half of the hedge funds and a substantial percentage of the private-equity companies "will have ceased to exist". One of the great equalizers of our markets is the fact that eventually unsound investments unravel and leave unwise investors holding a worthless bag. The question is how far down do these unsound investments drag the rest of us. Containment becomes a very important issue.

John Kaighn

Jersey Benefits Advisors

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